灰色关联分析在道路交通事故中的应用

Application of Grey Incidence Analysis in Road Traffic Accidents

全国或某一地区的道路交通安全系统是一个灰色系统,可应用灰色关联分析法方便地确定影响交通安全的主要相关因素。由灰色关联度导出灰色关联序,以进行优势分析,从而得到交通事故的最(准)优因素及最(准)优特征。根据1990—2000年全国道路交通事故以及全国人口、机动车、公路里程和客货运输量等主要相关因素统计资料可知,货运量、货运周转量和客运量是影响交通安全的主要相关因素,死、伤人数是交通事故的主要特征和指标。由哈尔滨市2000年道路路段交通事故与交通组成统计资料可知,城市道路交通事故的主要影响因素是各类货车、摩托车和大型车。因此,加强货车和货运管理对提高我国交通安全水平具有重要意义。

The road traffic safety system of the whole nation or a region is a grey system, which could be used to easily ascertain the correlated factors of road traffic accidents. Grey incidence orders derived from the degree of grey incidence could be used for superiority analysis to obtain the optimal （quasi-opfirml） factors and optimal （quasi-optimal） characteristics of road traffic accidents. Based on the statistical data of road traffic accidents, population, number of vehicles, total lengths of highway, passenger and freight transport amount of 1990--2000 in China, it is known that the freight transport amount, freight tumovers and passenger transport amount are the main correlated factors influencing the traffic safety, and number of casualty is the main characteristic and indicator of road traffic accidents. Frcrn the statistical data of road traffic accidents and traffic composite in 2000 in Harbin City, it is seen that cargo carriers, motorcycles and large vehicles are the main factors causing the urban road traffic accidents. It concludes that reinforcing the management on the cargo carriers and freight transportation would be significant in improving the traffic safety in China.