城市应急能力评估体系Kappa分析

Kappa Analysis on Assessment of Urban Emergency Capability

在建立城市应急能力评估指标体系的基础上,提出利用Kappa方法统计对城市应急能力评估体系的设置进行分析。Kappa统计量是比较两个或多个观测者对同一事物,或观测者对同一事物的两次或多次观测结果是否一致,以由于机遇造成的一致性和实际观测的一致性之间的差别大小作为评价基础的统计指标。Kappa统计量和加权Kappa统计量不仅可以用于无序和有序分类变量资料的一致性、重现性检验,而且能给出一个反映一致性大小的“量”值。结合专家对南方A市的城市应急能力评估,利用Kappa统计方法对指标设置的合理性以及专家评分的趋势进行了分析,结果表明专家的打分具有较好的一致性。

Preparative conditions of urban emergency can be examined effectively by emergency capability asst. Based on urban emergency capability assessment indexes, an experimental assess-rent is conducted in city A. Kappa statistic can draw comparisons betoken two or mare than two observers＇ results. Through calculation, Kappa statistic may give a quantity to measure the consistency of lots of observed numerical values. During the course of assessment, exists coming from different departments give respective grades of emergency conditions in city A. Then indexes setup and grades by exqerts are discussed. The results indicate that grades by experts show good consistency.