PERT工序时间估计的一些研究

Studies on The Estimation of Activity Time in PERT

本文首先从理论上分析了在工序时间服从β—分布的条件下，传统的ＰＥＲＴ公式的估计误差，并指出其中的方差估计误差范围比较大．其次本文介绍了国外提出的若干工序时间估计改进方法，并对其相互优劣比较结果进行了评述．最后本文就工序时间估计的一些基本问题进行了讨论．

This Paper discusses theoritically the estimation errors of traditional PERT formulas under the condition that activity time is of β-distribution,and shows that the variance estimation error is relatively large. Secondly,Several improved estimation formulas for activity time are introduced and compared numerically. Finally,some basic considerations about activity time estimation are presented.