现场或震后趋势预测中的几个不精确推理问题

SOME INEXACT INFERENCE PROBLEMS ON TENDENCY PREDICTION AFTER EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE

在地震预报的实践中经常会遇到下面的情况,即如何估计在经过了一定的预报时间后尚未发生预期地震的条件下在余下的预报时间段内发生预期地震的信度问题。文中结合地震发生是个小概率事件这一特点,运用MYCIN模型推得了估计这一信度的实用公式,同时还对所遇到的其它几个不精确推理问题进行了论述。

In the practice of earthquake prediction, the following problems are often encountered, that is how to estimate the certainty factor for the predicted earthquakes which will occur in the duration left over under the condition that this earthquake hasn't occurred past a certain prediction duration. A practical formula for estimating this certainty factor is derived with MYCIN model based on the characteristics that earthquake occurrence is an event with small probability, and some other inexact inference problems are also discussed.