摘要
本文以《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》为基础，采用一定的洪涝指标计算方法，建立了淮河流域近５００年洪涝序列。在此基础上，从统计特征、时序特征和分形特征等方面讨论了淮河流域洪涝的基本特征。分析表明，淮河流域各等级洪涝具有较高的发生频次，且具有相对集中性特点和一定的持续发生机率；淮河流域洪涝具有不同长度的阶段性或周期性，存在约４６０年、１５０年和６０—８０年的周期及一些更小尺度的波动；淮河流域洪涝具有一定标度范围内的统计分形特征，时间分维值随洪涝强度的增加而降低，与洪涝周期呈反相关关系。时间分维是描述洪涝特征的一个较好的物理量，可能对揭示洪涝规律和进行有效预报具有重要作用。
On the basis of the“atlas of yearly dryness/wetness in China for last 500 year period”,the time series of floods in the Huaihe River Basin during 1470-1991 are established according to the flood index which considers the contribution of different flood area and different flood grade. Some characteristics of floods including statistical features, time series features and fractal features in the Huaihe River Basin for the last 500 year period are analysed according to the flood series. The analysis shows that the floods in the Huaihe River Basin have a relatively high frequncy and also have the features of simultaneous occurrence and successive occurrence.They have the periods with different time spans which are about 460 year,150 year and 60 80 years and some shorter time span oscillations.They also have time fractal featues in some scalling ranges. The time fractal dimension is decreasing with the increasing of the flood grade.It is inversely proportional to the periods of floods and may become an importment parameter in the study of floods.
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第1期22-29,共8页
Geographical Research
关键词
淮河流域
洪涝
分形
分维
Huaihe River Basin
Flood
Index
Fractal
Fractal dimension
