1992年16号台风的数值研究

NUMERICAL STUDY OF TYPHOON No. 16 1992

利用北京大学地球物理系暴雨监测与预报国家重点实验室发展的有限区域数值预报模式，对１９９２年１６号台风进行了１２ｈ数值模拟。时间是从８月３１日１２时（世界时）到９月１日００时。结果显示：模式预报的台风和实际台风的移动方向一致，移动距离相当。模式清楚地预报出了由台风倒槽所造成的强降水。这表明模式对台风路径、台风降水等都有较强的预报能力。还进行了对比实验，研究地形和积云对流等对登陆台风发展和降水的影响。结果表明：地形对台风的位置和降水有重大影响，积云对流除了对台风强度有影响之外，对台风环流的位置和台风的移动速度也有影响。

12 hours numerical simulation of typhoon No.16 1992, from 1200 UTC 31 August to 0000 UTC 1 September 1992.is carried out by using a limited area model developed in Laboratory for Severe Storm Researsch. Peking Universty.The position,intensity,and the heavy precipitation of the typhoon are well simulated in the model.Sensitive experiments shoes that the orographic forcing is crucial on the position and precipitation of the typhoon while the convective cumulus are important in determine the position and intensity of the typhoon.