广东省香蕉与荔枝寒害致灾因子和综合气候指标研究

Disaster-inducing factors and integrated climatic index for banana and litchi chilling injuries in Guangdong Province.

根据广东86个站点1951～2004年的气候资料、1955～2004年的寒害灾情资料以及已有的成果,对香蕉、荔枝寒害的致灾因子和寒害综合气候指标进行了研究.结果表明,香蕉、荔枝寒害的临界温度可以定为5.0℃,其致灾因子包括寒害的极端最低气温、最大降温幅度、持续日数和有害积寒,它们之间相关性明显.利用主成分分析对4个致灾因子进行综合简化,得到了一个物理意义清晰,且方差占总方差大部分的寒害综合气候指标.采用广州4个致灾因子的权重计算了全省86个站点历年的寒害综合气候指标.寒害综合气候指标数值的大小与香蕉、荔枝单产具有显著的负相关关系,可以用来分析香蕉、荔枝寒害的轻重.

Based on the 1951 - 2004 climate data from 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong Province, the chilling injury losses during 1955 - 2004, and the present research achievements, this paper studied the disaster-inducing factors and integrated climatic index for banana and litchi chilling injuries. The results showed that the critical temperature for banana and litchi chilling injuries could be determined as 5.0℃. The disaster -inducing factors included extreme minimum temperature, maximum temperature drop range, persisting days of low temperature and harmful chilling accumulation, and there were obvious correlations among these factors. According to the method of principal component analysis, an integrated climatic index was obtained, which optimally synthesized these four factors, and had clear physical meaning. Integrated climatic indexes of chilling injury in 86 stations were calculated by using the weights of these four disaster-inducing factors in Guangzhou. The value of integrated climate index of chilling injury was negatively related with the yield of banana and litchi, and could be used to analyze the degree of banana and litchi chilling injury.