析人民币汇率的决定

Analyss on Determination Exchange Value of RMB

根据相对购买力平价计算的人民币汇率与实际的表现出现的偏差是因为汇率反映的是两国间可贸易商品价格水平的比率及我国可贸易品生产力的提高速度高于发达国家的缘故。运用利率平价理论和汇率超调模型分析人民币汇率的决定与实际的表现的偏差是因为利率平价成立前提条件“均衡的市场利率、货币的完全可兑换”在我国尚未完全满足。根据国际收支说,中国国际收支的持续顺差使外汇储备不断增加应该是人民币趋强的因素,但中国的国际收支顺差带有鲜明的特色,其“双顺差”是极其不经济的,不能单简单地下结论现阶段人民币应该大幅升值,而且人民币目前根本不具备大幅升值的社会经济基础。

The deviation between RMB exchange rate based on Purchasing Power Parity and its real value is a response to the price ratio of the two countries because the commodity productivity of China increases more rapidly than that of the developed countries. Therefore, the nominal price of RMB is lower than that of its real value. The paper mainly focuses on the analyses of the Interest Rate Parity Theory and Exchange Rate Adjusting Model that demonstrate the above mentioned deviation caused by the imperfect condition for turning the theories into practices in China. Furthermore, according to the theory of International Payments, the RMB appreciation must be caused by continuous international payment surplus, however, the surplus in China is special which is called double surplus. Under such circumstances, it is not certain whether RMB should be appreciated or not because the double surplus is extremely uneconomical and it also has no sound social and economic backgrounds for RMB appreciation.