可靠性评估中随机模拟的精度控制

THE ACCURACY CONTROLLING IN RANDOM SIMULATION OF RELIABlLITY EVALUATION

采用ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ模拟法，在提出了随机模拟系统状态及其转移过程的概率方法的基础上，首次实现了对结果精度的定量控制。实例计算结果表明预测结果能满足精度要求，证明了将该方法应用于电力系统可靠性的评估是切实可行的。

In this paper, the controlling in numerical quantities to the accuracy decided is achieved with the Monte Carlo method. Examples prove that the theory about accuracy decided is geared to actual circumstances.