雨量预报方法的模糊评价模型——2005高教社杯全国大学生数学建模竞赛题目之一

Fuzzy Evaluation Model about Approach to the Forecast of Rainfall

对气象部门来说,准确、及时、有效地预报降雨量,需要有较优秀的预报方法.为此有必要构建一种评价某气象台所使用的2种不同降雨量预测方法精确性的模型,同时也应该在模型中考虑到公众的感受.为此,建立了一种模糊评价模型,并用MATLAB做了仿真.隶属度函数为:μ(x)=e-a(x-b).而后,创建了一种距离函数来表征预测与实际降雨量之间的差距,最后用距离和的最小作为评价函数.

To forecast the rainfall accurately,pramptly,effectively, Weather Bureau should have an excellent approach of rainfall -forecast. For this, it is necessary to build a model to estimate the accuracy of two different approaches to rainfall - forecast used at a meteorological station, at the same time, to consider the feeling of the public in model is also necessary. So it is necessary to set up a fuzzy evaluation model, and make simulation with MATLAB. Membership function is μ（x） =e^-a（x-b）. Then, via building a Measure function to represent gap between forecast - rainfall and actual - rainfall. Eventually, to take minimum of the sum of distance as evaluation function.