摘要
本文认为把现金存款比率、超额准备率等影响货币乘数的因子分离开来进行分析的传统方法是不科学的,货币乘数受中央银行以外的因素影响并不重要,重要的是货币乘数本身是否可预测。本文评估了我国货币乘数的可预测性及1996年以来我国央行对货币供应量控制实现程度,并进行了国际比较,结果表明我国货币乘数的可预测性还是比较强的,近年来我国货币供应量偏离其目标并不完全是控制能力和技术方面的原因,这种程度的偏离是可接受的,也是必要的修正。
Whether monetary aggregates can serve as intermediate targets of monetary policy in China or not is a debatable question on which much attention is focused. The controllability of money supply is very important for selecting intermediate targets. This paper holds the view that it is not a seientific method to analyze the factors affecting money multiplier separately, and reevaluates the controllability of money multiplier in China.
关键词
货币乘数
基础货币
可预测性
可控性
money multiplier
basic monetary
forecast
controllability
