城市应急避难所的应急适应能力——基于层次分析法的评价方法

Emergency adaption of urban emergency shelter:analytic hierarchy process-based assessment method

城市在聚集财富的同时也在聚集风险,因此,各种重大突发事件时有发生。城市应急避难所是应对突发事件的重要设施,是现代化大城市用于民众躲避危险地区的安全场所。为了提高应急避难所的应急能力,减少人员伤亡和财产损失,有必要对应急避难所的应急适应能力进行综合评价,以便为加强应急避难所应急能力的建设提供定量依据。以层次分析法为基础,根据应急避难所的功能特点,从应急避难场所的规划设计、内部硬件设施、外部软件环境三个方面出发,选定18个评价指标;构造了突发事件应急避难所应急能力影响因素的层次结构,建立了综合评价模型,求出了各指标的合成权重;利用线性加权模型得出综合应急适应能力评价结果,并确定改进的工作重点;对评价模型的优缺点进行了理论上的分析。以北京市元大都城垣遗址公园应急避难所作为实例,计算表明,这种方法具备一定的实用性和科学性。

Hazards are congregated into cities at the time of wealth being collected there, so all kinds of emergency incidents occur. The emergency sheher is an important measure to deal with emergency accidents, moreover it is a safe place to shelter from major accidents for modern citizens. In order to improve the adaption of emergency shelter and reduce the losses, it is necessary to assess it, so that the quantitative basis for emergency capability construction can be provided. Based on the analytic hierarchy process（ AHP）, 18 assessment indexes are selected around planning, internal hardware and outward software environment, according to the inherent character of emergency shelter. Then hierarchy structure comprehensive assessment model of factors is designed, which affect adaption of emergency shelter. The total weights of every index are got. The assessment conclusion is drawn through the linear adding weight model and the key of the improvement is determined. The advantage and disadvantage of the assessment model are also analyzed. Calculation examples indicate that the method is scientific and practicable.