洪水风险分析的研究进展与展望

Review of risk analysis on flood

我国洪涝灾害频繁,损失极大,引人注目。洪水的风险分析工作是实施非工程措施,从而科学有效地防洪减灾的前提和基础。在概括系统风险定义和来源的基础上,对洪水风险分析的研究现状作了评述。洪水风险分析的研究方法已从直接积分法、蒙特卡罗法、均值一次两阶矩法,发展到改进一次两阶矩法、二次矩法和JC法等。综述了洪水风险分析的研究成果,同时建议:(1)明确并统一风险分析的内涵;(2)开展“风险分析的风险”的研究;(3)将熵理论引入到风险分析之中;(4)拓展风险分析的基本理论和研究方法,如应用模糊信息优化处理技术、灰色系统、未确知数学等。

Flood disaster occurs frequently in China and the loss of it is the maximal one in natural disasters. Risk analysis in flood is the precondition and foundation to implement the non-engineering measures and to control flood scientifically and effectively. Based on the basic concept of system risk, such as the definition, the characteristic and the sources, the state-of-the-art of risk analysis in flood is reviewed. The risk analysis methods in flood has shown a progress from direct integral method, Monte Carlo method, mean first order second moment method, to advanced first order second moment method, second order method and JC method. The use of risk analysis in flood is reviewed. It is suggested （ 1 ） to make the connotation of risk analysis clear and unified. （2） to develop the study of ＂risk in risk analysis＂; （3） to introduce the entropy theory into risk analysis; （4） to advance the basic theory and methods in risk analysis, such as the application of fuzzy information optimization technology, gray system and unascertained mathematics.