摘要
本文对2002年8月在湛江附近登陆的0214号强热带风暴(黄蜂)进行了风暴潮实时预报。根据中央气象台预报的热带气旋强度和位置,采用数值模式,在该热带气旋由北上加强到登陆减弱的整个过程中,进行了三次实时预报,分别为18日20时、19日08时和19日 17时。预报结果表明本数值模式具有良好的预报功能,并指出其风暴潮预报时效和精度在很大程度上取决于热带气旋气象预报的时效和精度。
The real-time numerical forecasts of the storm surge, caused by typhoon No. 0214, have been maken in Zhanjiang during August 2002. Based on the typhoon intensity and location forecast by Central Observatory, we have done three times storm surge forecasts in the course of the typhoon moving from strengthening northward to weakening landing. The results of forecast experiments show that the numerical model have fine forecast function, and that period of validity and accuracy of storm surge forecast depend on those of typhoon parameter prediction to a great extent.
出处
《海洋预报》
2006年第1期27-32,共6页
Marine Forecasts
基金
总参重点项目(参气[2000]61号)资助
关键词
湛江
风暴潮
数值预报
Zhanjiang
storm surge
numerical forecast
