基于影响因子分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究

Primary Study on the Model Allowed for Influencing Factors for the Deformation Prediction of Landslide

将滑坡的影响因素引入到滑坡的位移预测模型中,从滑坡的位移动态变化特征和响应组成组分研究入手,将滑坡的位移分解为趋势项、周期项、脉动项和随机项,针对每一项进行研究,分别选取合适的影响因子变量和函数关系来模拟,并将各项耦合在一起得到位移的初步预测模型。通过对监测数据进行非线性多元统计回归分析,得到位移的最终预测模型。以长江三峡库区的新滩滑坡为实例,通过验证研究,发现将滑坡的影响因子引入滑坡的预测预报模型中的思路是有效可行的,而且可以明显地改善预测预报的时间尺度。

This paper mainly aims at how to take the influencing factors into account when we make up the prediction model for deformation of landslide. Firstly the paper analyses the characters and components of the deformation of landslide and decomposes the deformation into four components, including tendency part, period part, ripple part and randomcity part. Then it analyses the characters and the functions with the influencing factors of each part respectively. We get the predicting model through pulsing each part. Based on these analyses, we use the method of nonlinear multivariate regression analysis procedure to ac- quire the undetermined parameters and build the predicting model allowed for influencing factors. We use this model to deal with the data of Xintan landslide and find this model is suitable for the prediction of the landslide and it can prolong the predictive time scope obviously.