运用地理因子推算山区局地降水量的研究

Studies on Local Distribution of Precipitation in Mountainous Areas calculated with Gcographic Factors

根据北京有关地区气象站与潮白河、永定河、温榆河、拒马河等流域的水文站和雨量站的年平均降水资料，采用模糊聚类的方法将北京山区的降水分为３类地区。然后利用逐步回归方法，分别对各类地区进行分析，建立降水与影响因子的回归方程。进而利用方程求出１ｋｍ网格距的山区局地降水地理分布，所得结果与实际降水分布较为吻合，平均绝对误差为３３ｍｍ，相对误差为５．６％，可以满足实际应用的需要。

Precipitation distribution in mountainous areas is an important part of research on agri-cultural climatic resources;For calculating precipitation of mountainous areas in Beijing,an-nual average data of precipitation from the meteorological and hydrological stations for theChaobai,Yongding,Wenyu and Juma rivers were collected.With fuzzy clustering methodsthe mountainous areas of Beijing were dividedmto 3 regions and the data of precipitation ineach region was analysed using stepwise regression in order to establish the regression equa-tions between precipitation and its affecting factors, Distribution patterns with 1km grids ofthe local tjrecicpitation were derived by these equations which coincide with the actual resultswith error of 33mm and relative error of 5.6%。