小流域洪水预报模型参数智能化的初步研究

A PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON PARAMETERS INTELLIGENCE IN HYDROLOGIC MODEL OF FLOOD FORECASTING IN SMALL WATERSHEDS

以新安江三水源模型为例，分析了在不同土壤前期含水量、不同降雨强度和雨型、以及不同暴雨中心位置等情况下模型参数的特征规律。在此基础上重点探讨了模型参数智能化的方法和途径。最后以浙江曹娥江上游长诏小流域为实验区进行了分析验证。模拟结果表明该方法可较好地提高模型预报精度，且为洪水预报系统的智能化奠定了基础。

In this paper,taking Xinanjing Model (3 water source) for example,the hydrologic model parameters characetrs under different soil moistures,shapes of rainfall intensity curve as well as centres of rainstorm are thoroughly analysed.The methods of model parameters intelligence are primarily explored at the same time.The flood simulation test results on Cangzao small watersheds demonstrate that the methods improve distinctly the model precision of the flood simulate computation.Meanwhile,the research provides a basis for flood forcasting system intelligence.