我国小麦资源与综合生产能力研究

A study of wheat resources and its integrated throughputs in China

在分析我国小麦生产资源的基础上,采用因子载荷矩阵理论,通过构建因子分析模型,确定了影响小麦总产量的各因子及其影响权重。经研究认为,影响小麦产量的第一主因子为资源(科技)因子,主要是科技发展水平、农业资源等;第二主因子为投入(产出)因子,表现为价格、收益等;第三主因子为政策因子,包括政策虚拟变量、工农业商品比价;第四主因子为气候因子,主要为受灾比重的大部分信息。因而,要提高小麦综合生产能力,必须遵循“一靠政策,二靠科技,三靠投入”的原则。

Based on the analysis of wheat production resources in China, by using factor loading matrix theory, this paper builds the factor analysis models and ascertains the factors that influence the general output of wheat and their effect weight. It is discovered that the first factor impacting wheat output in off is resources factor, including science and technology development level, agricultural resources, etc. ; the second factor is input and output factor, including price and revenue; the third factor is policy factor, including subjunctive policy variables and the price rate of industrial commodities to agricultural commodi ties ; the fourth factor is climate factor, especially the disaster-suffered proportion. Therefore, to improve the integrated throughputs of wheat, it is necessary to follow the principia of ＂policy the first, science and technology the second and investment the third＂.