耕地数量变化及驱动力研究——以徐州市为例

Analysis of quantitative change and driving force of cultivated land——A case of Xuzhou City

以徐州市1987￣2003年耕地面积变化数据及其他社会经济因素数据为基础,通过对耕地数量变化及区域差异的分析,得出徐州市耕地面积变化的时空规律;采用主成分分析方法分析影响徐州市耕地数量变化的主要驱动力,并归纳为4点:经济发展、科技进步、人口规模增加以及耕地保护政策严厉化;针对耕地变化的不同驱动力提出徐州市加强耕地保护的对策和建议。

Based on the data of cultivated land＇s quantity and some other soci＇,d economic factors 1987-2003, analysed dynamic changes of quantitative and regional differences of cultivated land in Xuzhou, educed the space-time rule of dynamic changes of cultivated land＇s quantity in Xuzhou.With tht. method of principal component analysis,driving forces of farmland quantity change in Xuzhou were analysed and identified as the development of economy, the advancement of science and technology, the increase of population, the strictness of the policy of farmland conservation. In the end, in response to different driving forces, specific countermeasures were brought forth.