摘要
1990年以来珠江口出现7次强咸潮,主要原因是珠江流域秋、冬季少雨,西、北江径流减少。根据实测资料,分析西、北江流域近50年来冬季径流量变化特点,从大尺度海-气相互作用出发,分析冬季径流量减少的前期海-气特征,得出E l N ino与La N ina发生次年冬季,西、北江径流量出现负距平的机率分别为10/14和10/11,与副高强弱有关。这在冬季径流量预报及珠江口咸潮超前预警上有重要参考价值。并据此预测2005/2006冬季径流量为负距平,极可能再次出现强咸潮。
Severe saltwater intrusions （SSI） at Pearl River estuary have occurred 7 times during winter since 1990, mainly due to the lack of rainfall in the drainage areas of Pearl River and the subsequent low discharge of Xijiang and Beijiang rivers. Based on 50 -year observational data, beginning with large scale Atmosphere -Ocean interaction, the author analyzes the early Atmosphere -Ocean characteristics for the cases with discharge reduction in winter. Results show that the probabilities of negative discharge anomaly of Xijiang and Beijiang rivers in winter of the year after EI Nino or La Nina are 10/14 and 10/11 respectively, which is in correlation with activities of subtropical high. This can be used as a signal for river discharge forecasting and the early warning of saltwater intrusion at Pearl River estuary.
出处
《广东气象》
2006年第1期18-21,共4页
Guangdong Meteorology
基金
国家海洋局青年基金项目(2005218)
国家海洋局南海分局局长基金项目(0420)
关键词
西、北江流域
冬季径流量
厄尔尼诺
强咸潮
the drainage area of Xijiang and Beijiang river
river discharge in winter
El Nino
severe saltwater intrusion
