摘要
根据边坡位移监测信息,应用灰色系统的原理和方法,对边坡的变形发展变化进行预测是一种有效手段。但在阶段变化因素作为岩土体边坡变形影响主因时,由于监测时段与影响主因的阶段性不一致,监测数据序列不能正确反映边坡变形规律,致使边坡预测变形结果出现强度偏差;为此,提出以控制因素变化的阶段性来划分时间数据序列,建立阶段时间序列灰色预测模型,对边坡的发展变化情况进行预测。研究结果表明,采用该方法预测变形值与边坡实际发展变化一致,提高了时间序列灰色预测的准确性。
By using investigation information of slopes development, the grey system theory can be applied to forecast the unknown deformation of slopes. When season factors become the main influencing to the deformations of slopes, still using equal interval time series which will destroy complete season factor can not reflect the correct deformation orderliness of slopes and then the wrong forecasting will be made. But applying the time series divided by season factor to forecasting the deformation of slopes, the prediction results agree well with the real deformations, which is much more accurate than the former.
出处
《岩石力学与工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第A02期5799-5802,共4页
Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering
关键词
边坡工程
GPS
灰色预测
时间序列
slope engineering
global position system（GPS）
grey forecasting
time series
