多变量洪水风险分析方法

Method of Multi-variate Rainstorm-flood Risk Analyses

分析了洪水特征值的不同频率性和现行的单因素防洪风险分析方法的片面性。从组合事件的概率理论出发,利用“完全相关”与“相互独立”两种特殊情况,采用模糊集理论,建立了二参数加权组合概率模型。模型中不仅考虑了洪峰和洪量对洪水风险的共同作用,而且避免了确定条件概率分布的问题,为在现有的洪水资料的情况下,合理估计防洪风险及进行防洪水利计算,提供了一种简单可操作性方法。

The nonidentity of the rainstorm-flood eigenvalues in the probability and disadvantage of currently mono-variant method of the flood risk analysis are analyzed. Based on probability theory about combined event,by dint of two special events such as＂absolute correlation＂and ＂inter-independence＂the bi-variate weighted compound probability model is established by means of fuzzy set theory. In the present model,not only the complex effects for flood peak and flood total discharge to the flood risk are considered, but also the problem of researching conditional probability distribution is avoided. A practical method that reasonably estimate flood risk with limited flood in formation is provided.