南海北部灾害地质稳定度评价模型

Stability evaluation model of hazardous geology in the north region of South China Sea

海洋经济的开发需要了解海洋灾害地质环境状况。海洋工程设计与建设需要考虑海底工程地质条件,特别是国家宏观决策更需要了解海洋地质环境的基本特征以及灾害地质类型、分布规律。灾害地质综合评价可以基于灾害地质分区进行,灾害地质综合评价的目标是比较不同分区的灾害地质稳定性并给出定量评价。文中就南海北部灾害地质稳定性提出了网格化加权统计模型。该模型结合专家智能的参与,体现了不同种类灾害地质因素的等级差别。另外还考虑到不同种类灾害地质因素之间的空间分布差异性及同类灾害地质因素的空间分布差异性。根据模型计算结果将评价区划分为稳定区、过渡区及危险区。这种划分通过与南海北部灾害地质稳定性定性描述对比。证明该模型在全面地定量化反映南海北部的地质环境状况方面是实用的。由于模型建立过程中各灾害因素权重分值的设定完全依赖于专家智能,因此,今后应当致力于更精确地确定权重分值。

The development of marine economy requires the understanding of the marine geological hazards status. Marine engineering design and construction need to evaluate the stability of sea floor. Especially, in national level, decision-makers needs to know the essential feature of the geological environment of ocean, and types and distribution of hazardous geology. Comprehensive evaluation of hazardous geology can be achieved by zoning of study area. The goal of evaluation is to compare the stability of different areas and provide a semi-quantitative result. The weight sum statistical model was used to evaluate hazardous geology in the north region of South China Sea in this paper. The model mainly considers the factors influencing geological hazards and their contribution. Using this model, the target area was classified into stable zone, transitional zone, unstable zone.