10年尺度强震危险区的不精确推理预测方法讨论

STUDY ON INEXCT RATIONAL METHOD OF PREDICTING STRONG SEISMIC RISK REGIONS FOR TEN YEAR'S SCALE

由于现行预测方法的局限性及所使用的资料不精确、知识不完备、概念的模糊及地震发生的随机性,预测的结果具有相当的不确定性。10a尺度强震危险区的预测,是依据不同尺度多种预测方法的结果,以MYCIN不精确推理方法得出预测的危险区及信度。研究表明这是一条可行的、合理的预测途径。

Because of limitation of current prediction methods, inaccuracy of data, imperfection of knowledge, indistinctness of concepts and the randomness of earthquake occurrence, the prediction results have quite considerable uncertainties. The prediction of seismic risk regions in ten years is based on the results of various time scales and prediction methods. Inexact rational method of MYCIN has been used to predict seismic risk regions and estimate their certainty. The preliminary study shows that it is feasible and reasonable prediction technique.