世界粮食研究模型在黑龙江省作物产量预报中的应用

The Application of World Food Study Model(WOFOST) for Yield Prediction in Heilongjiang Province

在现有研究成果的基础上,提出世界粮食研究(WOFOST)模型在黑龙江省四大作物产量预报应用中的参数分区处理方法,运用WOFOST的模拟产量和趋势产量对黑龙江省四大作物产量进行了预测分析。研究表明:该方法效果理想、可行,具有理论研究和实际应用价值,克服了只用一组参数在复杂气候区域进行作物产量模拟的局限性,拓宽了WOFOST模型在复杂气候条件下的应用领域。

Based on the studied results, the model parameters of the World Food Study Model （WOFOST） were divided into different fitting parts for the four main crops and the yields of the four main crops were simulated and analyzed in Heilongjiang Province, by the synthesis regression equations with the predicted yields by WOFOST model and the trend yields. The results showed that the synthesis methods were better, available and worthy of theoretical study for reality applications. The application restricts of a set of united parameters were overcome. The application fields were developed under the sophisticated climate conditions for the WOFOST model. The shortcomings and the prospect were pointed out in this paper.