陕西省作物气候生产力的地理分布与变化特征

Geographical Distribution and Change Characters of Crop Climate Productivity in Shaanxi Province

利用陕西省78个代表站点40年的气象资料,采用EOF和其它数理统计方法,研究了陕西省作物气候生产力的时空分布及其变化特征,模拟了气候变化情景下的作物气候生产力状况。从设定的情景可以看出,“暖湿型”气候对农业的生产是有利的,平均增产幅度约8.0~9.6%,而“冷干型”气候最不利于农业生产,平均减产幅度约-10.4%^-8.6%。

Based on the meteorological data of 78 representative stations in recent 40 years, the geographical distribution and change characters of crop climatic productivity in Shaanxi Province were analyzed by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） and other statistic methods. The crop climate productivity under climate change scenarios was simulated. The warm and wet climate would benefit the agriculture production with an average increase of crop yield by 8.0% to 9.6%, while the cold and dry climate would have an adverse impact on agriculture production with an average decrease of crop yield by 8. 6% to 10.4%.