汇率升值对就业影响的中日比较

A Comparative Study of Exchange Rate Appreciation’s Effect on Employment of China and Japan

关于就业问题,以往的研究主要从就业总量与就业结构两个角度进行探讨,本文对就业结构的研究进行了拓展,在实证研究中引入汇率,运用协整和误差修正模型对日中两国实际汇率与第三产业产值比重和就业比重之间的关系进行了国别比较。实证结果表明,从长期看日本第三产业就业比重上升与实际汇率升值正相关,而中国的相应变量间不存在类似长期关系。比较分析得出结论:只有在汇率适度浮动,资源在部门间流动壁垒减少这两个条件满足时,汇率升值才会产生资源配置作用,推动劳动向非贸易部门转移,逐步优化就业结构。

The existing studies of employment issues have been carded out mainly from such angles as gross employment level and employment structure. This paper, however, has extended the scope of employment structure studies by introducing exchange rate as a new variable in positivist studies and the methods of co-integration test and error correction model （ECM） in the comparison of the relationships between real exchange rate and the proportion of tertiary industry production value and between the proportion of employment of China and Japan. As is illustrated by positivist investigation findings, the increase of employment in tertiary industry and the appreciation of real exchange rate are positively related in Japan, while similar long-term relationship does not exist in the corresponding variables of China. A conclusion is therefore reached through comparative analysis that, only when the following two prerequisites are satisfied, that is, the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate in an appropriate range and the barriers are cut down to enable the free flow of resources between various sectors, can exchange rate appreciation exert a resource restructuring function, promote the transfer of labor force to non-trade sectors and help optimize the structure of employment.