运输通道公路旅客中长距离OD模型构造及分段客运量预测

Construction of OD Model of Middle and Long Distance Highway Trips and Prediction of Segment Passenger Volume of Transport Corridor

针对运输通道公路旅客中长距离出行特征及调查点OD不一致问题,通过对各运输线路(高速公路、国道等)影响区域交通小区划分及变化的分析,提出利用既有的不同线路上各个调查点的OD调查结果,采用合并、拆分的方法构造通道OD的基本原理及旅客中长距离出行OD模型约束条件和修正方法,进而利用构造的OD模型预测未来年OD分布,推算通道内公路旅客中长距离出行的分段客运量,并结合京郑运输通道的公路分段客运量预测阐述了该方法的具体应用。

With regards to problem that trip features of passengers＇ middle and long distance highway trips can＇t agree with OD matrix, based on analysis of division and change of traffic district in impact region of different transport lines, authors presented a basic principle and passenger＇s middle and long distance trips OD model restrict condition and modification way of utilizing the existed OD investigation results of different roads to construct OD matrix of transport corridor with disassembly and combination method. Then, authors utilized the constructed OD matrix to forecast traffic demand to predict segment passenger volume, and combined the prediction of segment passenger volume of Jingzheng transport corridor to expound application of this method.