基于不确定层次分析法确定管道风险因素权重

DETERMINATION OF RISK FACTORS SCORING WEIGHTS OF OIL & GAS PIPELINE BASED ON UNCERTAIN ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

文章采用不确定层次分析法确定油气管道风险因素的评分权重。首先采用不确定判断矩阵确定风险因素的评分权重区间。然后根据群判断的相似性和差异性计算出专家可信度作为专家的评分权重,根据专家的评判水平对相应的评分权重进行修正。同时,综合考虑风险因素的主观评分权重和客观评分权重,以计算出各风险因素的最终评分权重。最后,通过工程实例分析证明该方法具有较大的灵活性和适应性,与客观实际更加吻合,是对传统层次分析方法的进一步完善。

The traditional analytic hierarchy process is used to solve complicated decision-making problems expediently as a practicable decision-making method that can analyze qualitative events quantitatively. However, because problems are of complexity, fuzzy and uncertainty during risk assessment of gas pipeline, judgment range by experts is accorded with fact and can incarnate objectivity even more than certain numerical value by experts' present when various factors of the same levels are compared and judged. Therefore, risk factors scoring weights of oil & gas pipeline have been made sure by uncertain analytic hierarchy process. Firstly, weight sections of risk factors in oil & gas pipeline have been made sure by uncertain judgment matrix. Then, on the basis of comparability and otherness of cluster judgment, experts' reliabilities as experts' scoring weights have been calculated. Corresponded scoring weights have been modified by experts' judgment level. In addition, ultimate weights of various risk factors can be calculated by considered subjective weights and impersonal weights of risk factors. Finally, a practical example shows that the method is so flexible and adaptive that it is more corresponded to objective practice and consummates the traditional analytic hierarchy process method ulteriorly.