灰色统计方法及其在岩溶塌陷预测分析中的应用

Application of Gray System Statistic Method in the Field of Karst Collapse Prediction Analysis

灰色统计方法是基于统计预测和灰色预测两种方法形成的一种预测方法。这种方法预测岩溶塌陷的特点是既考虑塌陷形成的本质，充分利用其统计特征，又较好地考虑了岩溶塌陷系统难以全知的灰色性，使量化指标经灰色处理得以有效应用。本文在综合分析岩溶塌陷预测方法基础上，揭示出灰色统计方法在预测岩溶塌陷上的优越性，进而阐明了为灰色统计方法预测岩溶塌陷的步骤和原则，并以Ｓ市岩溶塌陷为例进行了示范性分析。

Gray statistic method is one of the prediction methods based on statistic prdeiction and gray prediction methods. The characteristics of the method in the prediction of Karst collapse is that it considers not only the essence of karst collapse when it forms,but also the distinguishing feature of karst collapse system that is semiknown,and then the quantity ratio index can be effeictively used after gray treatment. On the base of comprehesive analysis of karst collapse prediction methods,the advantage of gray statistic method in the prediction of karst colapse is presented, the principle and step of gray statistic method in predicting karst collapse is elucidated, and as a example the analysis of karst collapse of S city is Given in the paper