中国利率调整对消费作用的实证分析

Sustantial analysis of the Adjustment of Chinese Profit Rate and Its Impact on Consumption

研究表明,中国利率的变化与国民消费水平增长呈现出一种反向变化的趋势,这一结果与传统的凯恩斯理论、永久性收入假说理论和随机游走理论等相悖,其主要原因是中国的城市消费和农村消费的异质性和“二元结构”特点,不具备上述理论的假设条件。利率机制目前还不是中国调解消费的理想工具,应考虑更多地使用非利率的其他金融手段。

Study indicates that the change of profit rate and the growth of national consumption show a kind of opposite tendency which contradicts traditional Keynesianism, permanent proceeds hypothesis or the Radom- Walk theory. The reason for this is that the heterogeneity and ＂dualistic characteristics of urban and rural consumption do not conform to the hypothetical conditions of those theories. Therefore, the mechanism of profit rate is not an ideal way to cope with the adjustment of consumption, and other financial methods, like consumer credit, rather than profit rate should be taken into consideration in order to adjust consumption.