中国外商投资与贸易政策的经济学分析

Analyses of China's Foreign Investment and Its Foreign Trade Policy

文章对经典文献中的关税决定与外商投资的政治经济学模型进行了扩展,引入了内生外商投资决定机制。通过MATLAB模拟出特定数值参数下博弈的均衡解并对均衡解的性质进行讨论,得出了在一定条件下,均衡的贸易保护水平与外资水平之间存在正向关系的命题,而均衡解是高水平均衡还是低水平均衡则取决于该行业的特定行业参数,正是这些行业特定参数的差异导致了现实中复杂的贸易保护结构和外商投资水平。为了检验由模型所得出的命题,文章利用中国第三次工业普查的数据进行了实证检验,通过联立方程组计量模型对数据进行回归,结果对理论模型的结论给予了支持。

The paper, based on previous literature, discusses the relatinship between an industry＇s tariff level and its foreign investment level,It particularly extends the model of political economics in the classical literature concerning foreign investment and tariff determination by introducing an endogeneous foreign investment decision machanism. By using MATLAB we solve the equilibrilum solution of the model under numerical parameters and discuss the the properties of the equilibrilum solution. Thus, a proposition is reached that under certain conditions there is a positive relation between the equilibrilum foreign investment level and tariff level while whether a high level equilibrilum or a low level equilibrilum appear is determined by the parameters of the industry, It is just the differences between these industries＇ parameters that induce the complicated structure of thrade protection and foreign invetment level in reality.