对外直接投资与美国服务贸易的发展

FDI and the Development of American International Trade of Services

一般认为,对外直接投资活动(FDI)对贸易的持续增长将起到十分重要的支撑和推动作用。本文选用了美国1970年至2003年的相关数据,通过建立自回归模型,拟合后发现这个结论在美国的服务业领域也成立。进一步运用Granger因果检验方法,发现两者之间还存在着互为因果的关系。然而,通过对统计数据的分析,同时也直观地发现,在美国服务业内的对外直接投资与对外贸易在进出口上的同向相关性并不明显。其原因可能是各国对服务业的限制措施所造成的扭曲和直接投资的贸易替代效应所致。

Generally speaking, FDI will make an important supporting and promoting effect on the development of international trade. This paper analyzes the correlative data of America in the period 1970-2003 by setting up an auto-regression model, and finds the same conclusions in the service industry with the former. Furthermore, the mutual causality relationship between FDI in services and the trade of services is proved by Granger causality test. However, this paper also finds that the identical direction correlation between them is not very clear. The reason is probably the poorly effective services market caused by governments and the substitution effect.