山东省近40年气候变化特征

Analysis of Climate Change in Shandong Province Since 1961

根据山东省60个气象站1961～2001年的气温与降水资料,利用回归分析、功率谱分析等方法,研究了山东省近41年气温与降水的年、季变化倾向、阶段性和周期性等变化特征.结果表明：①近41年山东省年平均气温有显著的上升趋势,各季平均气温虽也均呈上升趋势,但增温趋势表现出明显的季节非对称性,其中以冬季气温增幅最大.②年降水量呈下降趋势,年降水量减幅为每10年 31.7 mm;不同季节降水的变化趋势有所不同,其中夏季降水减幅最大,而冬季降水略有增加.③山东省年平均气温的演变表现出明显的阶段性和周期性的基本特点,而降水的阶段性和周期性特征则不如气温显著.

Based on the temperature and precipitation data from 60 representative meteorological stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2001, the climatic change in Shandong Province was studied in detail. The resuits indicate： ① There was an obvious increasing trend in the annual mean temperature in the recent 41 years; the seasonal increasing rate was the biggest in winter.②Annual precipitation had a descending trend, especially in summer, but in winter the precipitation assumed faint increasing trend. ③ Both temperature and precipitation exhibited the phasic and periodic nature, and there existed a period of 10 years in temperature change.