福建省人工用材林收益与风险分析

Analyzing Income and Risk of Plantation in Fujian Province

对福建省人工用材林的投资风险进行实证分析,得出结论:1993—2002年,福建省人工用材林自然灾害风险所造成的平均风险损失较低,这与木材税费下降和人工林优惠政策出台有关;然而,对私人而言,其森林一旦发生火灾或病虫害,将造成投资损失,因此,政府必须建立分散风险的制度。

Investors always expect to invest the item of higher income and lower risk. Plantation income and risk can affect investment quantities. Beforetime, people believe that plantation income is lower. However, in recent years, because of reduction of timber tax and fee and policy to support forestry coming on, plantation income rate have enhanced and private forest have developed speedily. It may be demonstrated in Fujian Province. Bankers and potential investors are afraid of plantation risks, for example fire and diseases and insects, and are short of confidence for plantation investment. To analyze plantation risk of Fujian Province by real data, the paper concludes that from 1993 to 2002, average nature risk loss of plantation is lower in Fujian Province. Nevertheless, if a private forest happens fire or has diseases and insects, he will lose. Therefore, government must establish system to decentralize risks.