长江防洪系统水情监测和预报技术研究概述

A briefing on flood monitoring/forecasting techniques for Yangtze River

水情监测和暴雨洪水预报是防御洪水灾害不可缺少的重要手段，也是三峡工程的建设和安全运行以及长江治理开发的可靠保证。开展水情监测和预报技术的研究是以三峡工程为中心的长江防洪系统进行优化调度的科学基础，也是提高防洪综合效益的重要手段之一。在国家科委和水利部的直接领导下，经过广大参研人员的艰苦努力，克服了许多困难，进行了大量卓有成效的工作，突破了许多难题，取得了一批具有国际先进水平的科研成果，部分成果达到了国际领先水平。在综述专题研究主要内容的基础上，介绍了５个子题从信息的采集、传输、接收处理、建库到暴雨洪水预报直到建立专家交互式洪水预报系统的暴雨洪水监测预报全过程的研究成果以及成果水平和效益分析。

The water regime monitoring and flood forecast are indispensable important means to eliminate or mitigate the flood damage and to ensure the Three Gorges Project's safe construction and operation aswell as to harness and develop the Yangtze River. Studying the techniques of monitoring and forecasting the river water regime is one of basic research works of optimizing the regulation of the Yangtze's flood control system with the Three Gorges Project as a pivot and enhancing the comprehensive benefits of the flood control. In this paper, the main contents of research studies are first summarized; and then the findings of 5 sub-topic and their academic and benefit analysis are presented, including the information acquisition, transfer,recieving and processing of data, establishment of data base, set-up of the expert interactive flood forecast system, and the storm flood monitoring and forecasting, etc.