中国经济周期研究:1954￣2004

A Study of China's Economic Cycles from 1954 to 2004

本文从中国的基本国情——存在大量农村剩余劳动力出发,提出了分析我国经济周期性波动的基本理论框架:基于劳动力转移的真实经济周期理论。在此基础上,分别考察了1954￣1975年、1976￣2004年两个时间段经济周期波动的典型事实,并进行了计量检验。本文的主要结论是,尽管自1954年以来我国的GDP增长率与投资增长率就表现出显著的共同周期现象,但是,1976年以后的周期与以往存在着明显的不同:劳动力转移、投资增长和经济增长三者的相互作用成为推动我国经济周期性波动的基本经济机制,经济周期因而表现为高度同步的GDP周期、投资周期和劳动力转移周期。这种现象说明,宏观经济政策应该将稳定投资、加快体制改革作为基本的出发点。

Starting from China's fundamental circumstances that there exist a huge amount of rural surplus labor, we in this article have provided a basic theoretic framework concerning China's cyclical economic swing-a cyclical theory of real economy founded on labor force transfer. On this basis, we have respectively probed into the typical facts of China's economic cyclic fluctuations that occurred in between 1954 and 1975 and in between 1976 and 2004, and we have examined them by econometric technique. Our main conclusion is that, since 1954 to 1976, China's GDP growth rate and investment growth rate apparently had had the same cyclic phenomena, but thereafter, the cycles have been obviously different from past ones: the interaction of labor force transfer, investment growth and economic growth with each other has turned into the factor that have formed China's essential economic system driving China's cyclic economic fluctuations, resulting in the fact the economic cycles have found expression in greatly synchronous GDP cycles, investment cycles and labor force transfer. This occurrence indicates that, in making macroeconomic policies, stabilization of investment and acceleration of system reform should be taken as the vital starting point.