强地震短临预报的气象学方法

A METEOROLOGICAL METHOD OF SHORT-TERM AND IMMINENT PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES

本文研究了强地震发生前半年至一年时间尺度上浅层地温异常变化的分布特征和震前几天至一个月大气压力、气温变化的分布特征,据此提出了强地震短临预报的气象学方法.根据强地震前浅层地温(0.8m～3.2m深的温度)距平存在六个月以上正距平且有一定的幅度和距平等值线给出的升温中心确定强地震发生的背景异常,一般升温中心即未来震中,在此基础上分析浅层地温升温中心区域大气压力和气温的变化幅度及分布特征.研究发现,在地温升温中心区域,地震前约一个月时间内,月平均气压变化幅度最大,气压距平中心与地温升温中心基本吻合,沿构造带走向有气压变化的最大梯度区;大气环流发生突变,单站气压往往发生持续性变化,有持续下降和上升的过程,其低值一般达历年同日平均气压的最低值,变化幅度超过11百帕.根据多个震例的研究,本文提出了3条强震发生的背景异常判别指标和3条临震预报指标,震级强度≥6.0.

This paper has studied the distribution characteristics of ground temperature anomalous variation in shallow layer half a year to one year before the strong earthquakes and the characteristics of air pressure and air temperature several days to one month before earthquake. Based on this , a meteorological method of short - term and imminent prediction of strong earthquakes has been suggested. The back-groung anomaly of strong earthquakes has been determined according to that the distance average of shallow ground temperature (0. 8m - 3.2m deep temperature) showed normal distance average with a certain amplitude, lasting for more than 6 months before strong earthquakes and to the temperature -rising center given by distance average isoline. Generally speaking, the temperature - rising center is the epicenter of the coming earthquakes, based on this, the variational amplitude and distribution characteristics of air pressure and air temperature in the temperature-rising center of shallow ground temperature is analyzed. It is found by studies that, in the temperature -rising area of ground temperature, the variational amplitude of monthly average air pressure is maximum in one month period before earthquake. The distance average center of air pressure is basically consistent with the tempreture - rising center of ground temperature. Along the strike of tectonic zone showed a maximum gradient area of air pressure variation;the general circulation of atmosphere showed sudden variation,the air pressure at one - station usually showed continuouse variation, showing a continuous falling and rising process, its low value generally reached the lowest value of the average air pressure on the same day over the years, with its variational amplitude being over 11 hpa. According to the studies of earthquake examples, three judgement indexes of background anomalies of strong earthquakes and three imminent earthquake prediction indexes, with magnitude being>6. 0, have been put forward.