全球股票指数权重比较分析

A Comparative Analysis of Weight Composition of Global Stock Index

优越的权重指标是构造成功的全球股票指数的基础,除了市值、GDP可用作权重外,本文提出出口额、进出口额、商品服务贸易额也可作为权重,并对该5种权重进行了比较分析,结论是:由于各国股票市场发展差异较大,市值权重太偏重发达国家;GDP适合作权重,但美国的权重太大,全球股指易受其左右,另汇率波动对权重的影响也不可忽视;出口额、进出口额与股市相关性强,汇率波动影响很小,权重结构比较理想,而进出口额尤佳。

Appropriate weight is the basis for successful Global Stock Index. Except market capitalization ＆ GDP as a weight, the author suggests that exports, imports ＆ exports and IE of goods ＆ services, are also good alternatives. By comparing five kinds of weights, the conclusion is： market capitalization as a weight is unduly favorable to developed countries due to large gap between developed and developing nations. GDP as a weight may be suitable, but the proportion of USA GDP is so big that USA market can influence the Index easily, and the impact of exchange rate on GDP is not negligible. Exports, imports ＆ exports are closely related with stock market and the impact of exchange rate is negligible, therefore are good weights. The imports ＆ exports as a weight is much better.