云南强震活动的“免疫性”特征研究

STUDY ON IMMUNITY CHARACTERISTIC OF STRONG SEISMICITY IN YUNNAN

本文提出了强震活动的＂免疫性＂概念，详细研究了云南６级以上地震的＂免疫性＂特征。认为一次６级地震发生后３０年内在距震中３０公里范围内再发生６级以上地震的可能性小于５％，一次７级地震发生后３０年内距震中６０公里范围内再次发生６级以上地震的可能性小于１０％，而１００公里范围内发生７级以上地震的可能性不大于２０％。文中给出了不同震级续发地震和先发地震的最小距离与先发地震震级的统计关系。并对地震＂免疫性＂机理进行了初步分析。

This paper gives a concept,immunity of strong seismicity and studies immunity characteristic of earthquakes with over M 6 in Yunnan in detail. The authors believe that after a earthquake with M6,the probability of earthquake reccurrence of mangnitude over M 6 within 30 km from the epicentral will be below 5% In 30 years, and after a earthquake with M 7, the probability of earthquake reccurrence of magnitude over M 6 within 60 km from the epicentral will be 10% in 30 years and the probability of earthquake reccurrence of magnitude over M 7 within 100 km,20%.In this paper,statistical relation between the minimum distances from the first events to following events with various magnitudes and the magnitudes of the first events is offered and preliminary analsis of immunity mechanism is made.