凯恩斯不确定性经济理论的形成机制

The Forming Mechanism of Economics of Uncertainty of Keynes

在凯恩斯的不确定性经济理论中,概率是知识或信念的所有物,而不确定性对应着一种数字上不可测量的概率情形。凯恩斯通过把不确定性与信息完备性联系在一起,从而奠定了现代不确定性理论的基础。凯恩斯的一个重要贡献就是将不确定性和预期置于宏观经济分析的中心,不确定性理论成为其建立宏观经济学的逻辑起点和基石,而认知不确定性则作为一个关键性内容贯穿于凯恩斯经济分析的全过程。

According to the philosophy of Keynes＇ economics, uncertainty, or probability is the possession of knowledge or belief. Uncertainty corresponds to an unmeasurable probability. By combination of uncertainty with information completeness, Keynes laid the basis for the modern uncertainty theory. Putting uncertainty and expectation in the center of macroeconomic analysis was one of the important contributions of Keynes, who made the uncertainty theory the logical starting point and cornerstone of rnacroeconomics. Furthermore, being a critical content, cognitive uncertainty runs through the whole process of Keynes economic analysis.