经济增长、人口老龄化与医疗费用增长——中国数据的计量分析

Economic Growth,Ageing Population and Health Care Expenditures:An Econometric Analysis of Data of China

依据我国改革开放以来的统计数据,对经济增长、人口老龄化与我国医疗费用增长的相关性进行协整检验和Granger因果关系检验。分析发现:经价格紧缩因子调整后,我国医疗支出的收入弹性约为1;经济增长、人口老龄化对我国医疗费用增长的影响是一种长期关系,但短期影响不大;人口老龄化对我国医疗费用增长的影响明显低于经济增长的作用;经济增长、医疗费用增长都是我国老年人口比例提高的Granger原因。

Based on the statistic data of China from 1978 to 2003, this article carried out a cointegration tes（and a Granger causal relation test on the correlations among economic growth, ageing population and health care expenditures. The findings are as follows： Income elasticity of health care expenditure is about unity after GDP and HCE adjusted by price deflator; economic growth, ageing population will have influence on health care expenditure in a long period, but not in the short period; the impact of ageing population on heath care expenditure is of less than that of economic growth on. Economic development and health care expenditure are the Granger causes of ageing population,