试论朝鲜半岛第二次核危机与危机管理

The Second Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula and Crisis Management

朝鲜半岛核危机的发展过程包括美朝对抗、北京中美朝三方会谈以及多轮六方会谈几个阶段。对该危机进行管理,必须制定明确的目标,采取适宜的手段,并遵循必要的原则。作者认为,采取措施缓和危机,降低战争风险,建立朝鲜半岛的多边安全机制以消除潜在冲突,从而实现朝鲜“弃核”和半岛无核化是管理的目标。通过外交谈判和平解决该危机,进行六方会谈是管理的主要手段。在谈判中制定有限合理的目标,保持美朝双方沟通渠道的畅通,敦促危机当事方克制,在谈判中保持一定的灵活性,是管理的主要原则。在这个过程中,相关的亚太国家进行切实的安全合作是实现危机管理的基础。

The nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula developed through three stages: the North Korea-U.S. confrontation, the Sino-U.S.-North Korean three party talks, and the later rounds of the six-party talks. The crisis management includes clear targets, proper methods, as well as necessary principles to be followed. The author argues that management should be aimed at relaxing the tensions, alleviating the risks of war, establishing multilateral security mechanisms on the peninsula to eliminate potential conflicts, and finally making North Korea abandon nuclear weapons to realize a non-nuclear peninsula. To achieve this goal, all parties should resort to peaceful resolution through diplomatic negotiations, that is, the six-party talks. Meanwhile, the following principles must be followed: formulating reasonable targets for negotiations, maintaining smooth channels for U.S.-North Korea relations, urging the concerned parties to control themselves, and remain￣ing flexible during the negotiations. The author concludes that the basis for crisis management still relies on practical and effective security cooperation among the concerned Asian-Pacific countries.