我国外贸依存度的现状与分析

A Study on China Trade Dependence

改革开放以来,中国经济快速增长,对外贸易发展迅速,与此同时,外贸依存度不断增加并引起了国内外学术界和政府有关部门的高度关注。为了科学地讨论中国经济的对外依赖程度,本文在分析我国外贸依存度的变化趋势的基础上,选取了17个国家1990—2003年的数据,进行了横向国际比较,并分析了当前中国(不含港澳特别行政区和台湾省)和日本战后经济起飞阶段的贸易依存度之变化。研究结果表明:(1)中国当前的外贸依存度并不象一些媒体所称的那样高,但快速增长的趋势需要特别关注;(2)外贸依存度并不能准确地反映一国经济的对外依赖程度,需要提出更能科学地测量对外依赖程度的指标。

China has experienced the rapid economic growth since the initiation of the open door and reform policy, so has the foreign trade and trade dependence, which has been received redouble attention. Against this backdrop, this paper compares the China＇s trade dependence with that of 16 other countries, especially that of Japan postwar, for correctly evaluating the dependence of China＇s economy on trade. Our results show： （1） the fast growth should be noted much, though China＇s trade dependence is not very high up to now; （2）further modification or substitution of indicator should be obtained to measure the dependence of China＇s economy on world scientifically.