中国转轨时期宏观经济政策传导机制及政策效应的模拟分析

A Simulation Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism and Effect of the Macroeconomic Policies in the Transient China

在中国从计划经济体制向市场经济体制的转变过程中,作为平抑经济周期波动、稳定经济发展的各项宏观经济政策发挥了不可忽视的作用。本文根据中国在转轨时期所具有的经济特点,构建了一个小型的宏观经济联立方程模型,并根据中国当前的经济形势,模拟了2003～2004年货币政策和财政政策对宏观经济的影响。得出的结论为,由于传导机制的不畅,导致我国当前货币政策的效果、旨在增加农村居民收入的减税政策的效果不明显,而扩大城镇居民消费的、提高职工工资的政策效果则比较显著。

Based on the economic characteristic that China has in the transitional period, this paper constructed a miniature macroeconomic simultaneous - equations model of China, simulated the effects of the monetary policy and fiscal policy on the economy in the period of 2003-2004 according to the current economic conditions; The conclusions are that the effect of current monetary policy is inapparent because of the inexpedite transmission mechanism, and also the effect of tax - reduced policy intending to increase the income of rural households, but the policy that increased the total wages of staff and workers in order to enhance the urban households consumption expenditure has an apparent effect.