空间水资源模型中对高效灌溉技术应用的效应分析

The Analysis of Effects of Adoption of Efficient Irrigation Technologies in a Spatial Model for Water Use

本文在实地调研的基础上建立了一个空间水资源模型。通过对模型的优化求解寻求项目区最优的水资源配置、输水系统管理模式和个体农户的灌溉技术选择。模型方法采用国际经济学界备受推崇的GAMS方法(GeneralAlgebraicModelingSystem)。在所设计的四种情景模式中,对水资源利用现状、不同政策取向所引起的水资源分配变化及其对项目区社会经济及环境的影响,从数量上进行了模拟对比分析。模型结果对政策制定者和灌区水资源管理有极大的指导和参考价值,该研究具有很强的现实意义和可操作性。

Water scarcity and mismanagement have hampered China＇s further development for decades; especially inefficiencies in irrigation activities have created severe negative effects to Chinese rural economy and environment. Based on a field survey, this paper establishes a spatial water allocation model to maximize social welfare in the survey area. The optimal water allocation, public water conveyance system and individual farmers＂ adoption of modern water saving technologies can be achieved through the model＇s optimization process. General Algebraic Modeling System （GAMS） is employed for optimization. The current situation of water use in the survey area, the impacts of different policy orientations on social economy and environment have been simulated under four scenarios. The model results are of great value for policy makers and project managers to allocate water more efficiently.