基于一定风险水平的施工进度计划研究

Scheduling for construction under fixed risk probability

针对给定施工进度风险水平的施工进度计划编制问题,采用当量概率和蒙特卡罗仿真技术,给出了基于一定施工进度风险水平的施工进度计划的编制步骤;运用Delphi7.0和Microsoft Excel工具,开发了基于该方法的应用程序,并进行了工程实例分析.结果表明,应用该方法编制施工进度计划能够得到合理可靠的计划工期以及各活动的最早时间.

By use of the probability theory and Monte Carlo simulation（MCS） a scientific calculation method and procedure were worked out tbr construction scheduling under given risk probability. With Delphi 7.0 and Microsoft Excel, an application program of the method was compiled. Case study shows that the present method may help to obtain reliable work schedule for projects and the earliest time for each node.