准理性预期下央行的加息政策

The Analysis of Interest Rate Increasing Policy under the Quasi-rational Expectation

我国经济在2003年顽强的从通货紧缩的阴影中走出来,并且逐渐升温。而自2002年2月份下调人民币利率后,我国存贷款基础利率一直保持在1.98%的水平达33个月之久。面对物价的节节攀升,人民银行终于决定从2004年10月29日起上调金融机构存贷款基准利率,金融机构一年期存款基准利率上调0.27个百分点。准理性预期是介于理性预期和适应性预期之间的一种预期。从准理性预期的角度对这次加息进行分析。

The economy of our country comes out from the shade of deflation in 2003 and increases gradually. The basic interest rates for savings deposit and loans in Our country has been keeping the level of 1. 98% for 33 months since lowering the interest rate of RMB in February of 2002. Facing the soaring of the price, the Peopli＇ s Bank is determined to raise the rates in the financial institution and bring it into effect from October 29, 2004. The one - year benchmark interest rate for deposit of financial institution raises 0. 27 percent. Near - rational expectation is between rational expectance and adaptability expectancy This paper analyzes the increase on interest rate from the near-rational expectation aspect.