一种改进的灰色预测模型及应用

IMPROVED GRAY PREDICTION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

灰色预测模型具有要求样本数据少、运算方便、短期预测精度高等优点。因此,得到了广泛的应用,并取得了令人满意的效果。但是,它和其他预测方法一样,也存在一定的局限性,对原始数据列的光滑程度较高,而幂函数变换通过对原始数据列的处理,从而提高数据列的光滑程度。将幂函数引入灰色GM(1,1)模型中,并以某油田的含水率上升变化规律,验证了改进模型的实际效果。

The gray prediction model has the advantages of few sample data required, easy calculation, and high prediction accuracy in short terms etc. Therefore, it is used widely and satisfactory results have been achieved. But, as the same of the other prediction methods, there are some limitations in it. It has high requirement for the smoothness of the original data array. The power function conversion is conducted to improve the smoothness of the original data array by processing the original data array. And the power function is introduced into the GM (1.1) of the gray model. Also, the real effects of the improved model are verified by changing law of the water cut rising in some oilfields .