基于灰色理论的天然气需求预测

NATURAL GAS DEMAND FORECAST BASED ON GREY THEORY

运用不确定性分析法的灰色系统理论，经过样本数据处理、级比、级比界区检验，构建了天然气需求增长灰色系统预测模型GM（1，1）。采用残差V（k）来判断其预测精确度，对1990年～2004年间我国天然气需求量进行预测和可信度检验。实践检验结果表明：该方法简单、精确度较高。同时，运用此方法预测未来几年我国天然气需求呈快速增长趋势，到2009年天然气需求量将突破6400×10^4t标准煤。

Based on the grey theory to indeterminacy, the GM (1,1) forecasting model to increase natural gas demand is established through dealing with sample data, and scale comparison. The residual error V ( k) is used to judge the accuracy of its estimation. Natural gas demand at domestic from 1990 to 2004 is forecasted with the credibility examination. From the practice, it indicates that the method is simple in a higher accurate degree. At the same time, the method is applied to predict the demand in the several future years, which presents the quick increasing trend. Until 2009, the natural gas demand will breakthrough 64 million tons of standard oil.